New Voters Project 2004 Results

11/14/2006

Executive Summary

The research firm Polimetrix examined a sampling of individuals that the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project registered to vote in 2004 in six states: Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Oregon.  The report looked at the overall effectiveness of the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project in increasing youth voter turnout, as well as the extent to which certain kinds of tactics influenced an individual’s likelihood to vote. View the full study.

In Iowa, where the study used the most refined data and methodology, young people contacted by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project turned out at a rate 13 percentage points higher than a group of demographically similar individuals who also registered to vote within six months of the election. For all six states, individuals both registered and contacted by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project turned out at a rate of 86.3%.  People who were registered (but not contacted) by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project turned out at a rate of 77.0%, while those contacted (but not registered) by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project turned out at a rate of 76.9%.  These are all sharp increases from the baseline “not registered and not contacted” group, which turned out at a 59.5% rate.

Among the report’s other findings:

• Peer-to-peer voter registration drives can have a significant impact.  An aggressive voter registration drive not only increases the pool of eligible voters; by extension, it also increases turnout. The study revealed that young people who were registered to vote by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project in Iowa were 5.9 percentage points more likely to vote than a similar control group of individuals who registered to vote through other means.  This is a particularly significant finding, because while planning the 2004 campaign, it was assumed that young people registered by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project, many of whom might not have otherwise registered, would be less likely to follow through and vote. Yet the study reveals that young people registered by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project were actually more likely to vote than their peers who were registered by other means.

• Multiple peer-to-peer contact increases an individual’s likelihood to vote.  Consistent with other research, recent registrants contacted at least once by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project in Iowa were 13 percentage points more likely to vote than a demographically similar control group.  Furthermore, contacting voters multiple times increases an individual’s likelihood of voting – for example, in this study, individuals in the six states who were contacted at least three times turned out at a rate of 83.4 percent, compared to a 76.4 percent rate among those contacted just once.  Additionally, the study found that relatively few additional gains in turnout were made after the third contact.

• Contacts close to Election Day matter most.  Individuals contacted in the 72 hours before the close of polls turned out at a rate of 81 to 85 percent (depending on the timing of contact) versus 79 percent for those individuals last contacted 4-8 days beforehand, and 69 percent for those last contacted nine or more days beforehand. While the study finds that timing contacts close to Election Day can boost turnout, it also demonstrates that earlier contacts (for example, in the week before Election Day) can make a greater difference in states with early voting or vote-by-mail.